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As Americans took to the polls, the stock market came out of the gate fast Tuesday, opening higher and setting itself on a path for a possible second straight advance.
Polls showed President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in a race that will be decided in a handful of battleground states. A change in political leadership could affect sectors such as healthcare, energy and financials.
Investors will also closely watch races in the Senate and House of Representatives that will affect the "fiscal cliff," or $600 billion in spending cuts and tax increases that are set to be automatically triggered at the end of the year unless a deal is reached between Congress and the White House.
Trading volume is expected to light unless investors can gain some certainty about the emerging political picture.
"We do know this much, though, the resident in the White House may change, the face of Washington is still going to be one of tremendous gridlock, discord, and dysfunction and markets are going to force Washington to come to terms with the dysfunction." said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.
"One way or the other, markets are going to dictate that the fiscal cliff gets addressed."
Meanwhile, there's still earnings to keep the market occupied.
According to Thomson Reuters data through Monday morning, of the 387 companies in the S&P 500 that have posted earnings, 61.8 percent have topped Wall Street expectations, roughly in-line with the 62 percent quarterly average since 1994 and below the 67 percent average over the past four quarters.
But corporate revenue has disappointed investors, with only 38.1 percent of companies besting analyst expectations, well below the 62 percent quarterly average since 2002 and the 55 percent average over the past four quarters. ?
Here's how the stock market has fared in election days past:
- Nov. 6, 1984: Hours before Ronald Reagan beats Walter Mondale in a landslide for re-election, and with the economy healing after a deep recession, the Dow climbs 14 points to 1,244.
- Nov. 8, 1988: The market enjoys a strong morning in anticipation of a victory by George Bush over Michael Dukakis. It holds only a fraction of the gain, and the Dow ends up two points at 2,127.
- Nov. 3, 1992: An uneventful session one day after a rally based in part on speculation that a Bill Clinton presidency wouldn't hurt the markets. The Dow ends down nine points at 3,252.
- Nov. 5, 1996: In the middle of a historic bull market, investors embrace hope that Democrat Clinton and a Republican Congress will keep each other in check. The Dow rises 39 to 6,081, within 13 points of its all-time high.
- Nov. 7, 2000: George W. Bush and Al Gore go to the wire, and investors hold their bets. The Dow closes down 25 points at 10,952. The Dow slides as much as 5 percent during the five-week fight over the Florida vote.
- Nov. 2, 2004: After a five-day winning streak, the market confronts the prospect that the race between George W. Bush and John Kerry won't be settled on Election Night. Late selling pushes the Dow down 18 points to 10,035.
- Nov. 4, 2008: Investors expect an Obama victory and look ahead to a new administration to confront the financial crisis and deepening recession. At a time when wild swings are common, the Dow climbs 305 points to 9,625.?
The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.
Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/business/stocks-open-higher-crucial-election-day-1C6883971
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